What Makes Trump Confident He Will Not Be Ousted from the Oval Office?

What Makes Trump Confident He Will Not Be Ousted from the Oval Office?

In a recent interview, Donald Trump showed confidence that he will not be compelled to vacate his position as president of the United States (POTUS). He called on the Lower House’s Judiciary Committee to speed up with the preliminary hearing processes. That way, the proceedings will advance to the Upper Chamber where the impeachment trial will take place.

Clearly unfazed about any possibility of being removed from office, his confidence only indicates that he expects that the majority of the Senators will simply vote against ousting him as POTUS. After all, the count for all Republican senators who will vote to absolve him of any impeachable offenses is 53, which outnumber the 47 total of 45 Democratic and two (2) independent senators who will vote for his removal.

The polarized figures clearly indicate that once the impeachment trial takes place on the Senate floor, the result is already a given — Trump will not be found guilty of any impeachable offense.

That is presumably the main reason why, Trump and his minions are quite blatant about their refusal to cooperate. Why bother with presenting evidence or testimonies in Trump’s defense? In all probability, the opposing parties and the news media will only use them as additional material to support the charges thrown against Trump.

Although there is logic to the strategy, it also presents an unexplored loophole on how impeachment trials work effectively. Existing foundations of the impeachment powers that rest on the side of the Lower House (Congressmen) and of the Upper House (Senators), works on the principle that partisan politics will not be a dominating influence.

Yet as the turn of events has it, this is how the Trump impeachment case will turn out to be. Laws, evidence and truth can be cast aside, if it means having to save one’s political career or a personal reputation safe from any information that may be used to destroy them.

Still, there is hope being held on to by those who still keep faith that not all Republican Senators are as callous and as thick-skinned as their colleagues.

What Possibilities Could Make the Impeachment Trial Result to Trump’s Removal?

There is a simple majority count, if the entire lot of 53 Republican senators will be pitted against the 47 total of the Democratic and Independent senators.

However calculation of a majority count is not fixed because this can still change if at least twenty (20) Republican senators will follow their conscience, instead of their political ambitions or personal reasons. If that will be the case, adding the 20 votes of conscience to the Democratic and Independent votes will bring the total to 67. This will now attain ⅔ majority of the house number needed to uphold all the impeachable acts as bases for Trump’s removal.

Twenty is a relatively big number that makes Trump confident he will not be removed from the Oval Office.

Yet there are indications that the critical 20 votes of conscience may surface from the following:

The 5 Republican Senators who have signified their intention to retire and to no longer run for office in light of their age, 70 years or older.

The 10 Republican Senators who are up for reelection only in year 2024, who may consider voting based on conscience over giving value to future political aspirations.

Republican Senators Mitt Romney and Lisa Murkowski, the only two Republicans who have been vocal in voicing their disapproval of Trump’s Ukraine dealings.

Votes of conscience can also come from a handful of Republican Senators who have been following the developments of the impeachment inquiry in order to have a sound basis for their decision. These are the GOP senators, who when interviewed recently, seemed to have taken into consideration the testimonies and evidence presented by the House Intelligence and Judiciary Committees.